The problem
Email from the brand: commission on the sleep gummy is 20% this month, up from 12%. Every creator on the roster wants to make a video. Should they?
The rule
A raised commission is the brand stepping on the gas. Ask two questions before you follow: does it convert, and is it still early?
A brand raises commission for a reason. A launch, a promo, stock to move, a push before a sale. Something is about to happen to demand. That is good. But a higher payout on a product that does not convert is a higher payout on nothing.
The commission alone is one light. You want three:
- The brand is pushing. Raised commission, a giveaway, a creator contest, the brand’s own videos suddenly getting big distribution.
- The product converts. Recent videos above the money line. Not last quarter. Now.
- It is early. Creators have not piled in yet. Sales are rising faster than the creator count.
Three lights on, that is a window. One light, it is an email.
Say it to a creator
“Collagen got the biggest raise and it is the worst pick. The brand is paying more because nobody is converting.”
The example
| Product | Commission | Converting? | Crowded? | Call |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sleep gummy | 12% to 20% | Yes, 60 winners in 14 days | 300 creators, rising slowly | Go now |
| Collagen | 15% to 22% | No winners in a month | 2,100 creators | Skip |
| Probiotic | 10%, unchanged | Yes | 400 creators | Fine, but no rush |
A window does not last. Once the sales show up in the spy tools, the crowd comes. Usually you have a couple of weeks. If it is a real one, pull slots off other products and hit it.
What not to conclude
A raise does not make a product good. It makes a good product urgent.
Do this in Verdict
- 1The Window Score on the Pre-Slot Screener watches several signals on the products you track. When they move together, the score jumps and the product shows on your Plan as heating up.
- 2When it is just the commission, the score barely moves. That is the email.